Ich habe hier mal alles was ich zum Thema Finazkrise an Informationen habe zusammengefasst um die Auswirkungen darzustellen. Ich hoffe Ich kann damit zum besseren Verständnis der sehr komplexen Materie beitragen. Ich habe einige Dinge aus Gründen der Komplexität zum besseren Verständnis simplifiziert. Ich hoffe dennoch es wird klar was passieren wird.
Erstmal die Fakten:
160 Bio. $ Derivate Spekulationsblase
1,4 Bio. $ Hypotheken Spekulationsblase
54 Bio. $ Welt Brutto-Inlands-Produkt (BIP)
-> Damit sind die Spekulationsblasen unbezahlbar, Niemand kann dafür aufkommen!
Durch Credit-Default-Swaps (Kredit-Ausfall-versicherung; im weiteren kurz Swaps genannt), mit denen sich die Banken
untereinander ihre Versicherungen und Derivate absicherten, ist bisher unklar wie groß die Zahlungsverpflichtungen untereinander
wirklich sind, da inzwischen unüberschaubar ist wer für wen mit wieviel gebürgt hat.
Die Aufsichtsbehörden sind sehr besorgt da diese Swaps keinerlei Kontrolle unterliegen, und an jedem Zahlungstag erst bekannt
wird wer wem wieviel zu zahlen hat, womit dann natürlich immer wieder weitere Beben an den Finanzmärkten ausgelöst werden.
Dadurch können starke Kettenreaktionen entstehen die nach und nach die einzelnen Banken in die Pleite zwingen, da dieses Geld ja
nicht vohanden ist. Es ist ja rein spekulativ durch das "Wetten" auf bestimmte Ereignisse am Finanzmarkt zustande gekommen, und
durch keinen Wert irgendeiner Art gedeckt. Das erste "Anstossen" der Kettenreaktion begann mit dem Fallenlassen der US-Bank
Lehmann Brothers, die 90 Bio. $ an Derivaten hielt die durch Swaps anderer Banken gedeckt waren. Nachdem man den Fehler erkannt
hatte, hat man Fanny May und Freddie Mac, die insgesamt 140 Bio. $ an Swaps hielten, gerettet, man hat also Geld ins System
gepumpt. Danach wurde dann AIG gerettet um die Kettenreaktion aufzuhalten. Das Problem ist nur, dass auf dem gesamten Globus
nicht genügend Geld existiert, um diese Kettenreaktion vollends zu stoppen, da das Welt-BIP lediglich 54 Bio. $ beträgt. Die
Kettenreaktion wird also nur bis zum nächsten "Zahltag" (dem Tag der Offenlegung/Einforderung der Swaps) abgefedert. Da nicht
nur US-Banken, sondern alle Banken weltweit untereinander, in diesem Geflecht aus Swaps hängen, offenbart sich die Krise nicht
nur Stück für Stück, sie wird auch über den Globus verteilt. Das bedeutet, dass das Geschäft für die Derivate wegfällt, und
damit fällt auch die Profitabilität der Investmentbanken weg, was wiederum bedeutet, dass das Geschäft der Derivate erledigt
ist. Dadurch kam es z.B. dazu, dass die deutsche Niederlassung der Lehmann Brothers, Investoren mit 11,4 Mrd. € sitzen liess die
dann aus dem Einlagensicherungsfond bezahlt werden müssen, der in Deutschland nur ca. 4-9 Mrd. € beträgt.
Das heisst, dass durch die Pleite Verluste auf deutsche Anleger zukommen, woraus wiederum resultiert, dass die Kosten im
deutschen Bankensystem steigen, was dazu führt, dass das Risiko von Bankenpleiten steigt und damit auf die Realwirtschaft
durchschlägt. Siehe z.B. Hypo Real Estate (HRE), die dann vom Staat gerettet werden musste. Das Geld, welches zur Rettung
eingesetzt wurde kommt allerdings nicht dan Anlegern zu Gute, sondern denjenigen, die offene Swaps bei der HRE einforder(te)n,
also wiederum andere Banken. Somit wird also die "Kettenreaktion" abgefedert, respektive verlangsamt/vertagt. Dadurch handelt
man diametral zur sozialen Marktwirtschaft, da man das Geld der Steuerzahler, dass den Banken eigentlich gegeben wurde um
mittelständische Investitionen zu finanzieren und abzusichern, den "Reichen" (Banken), durch die Swaps, gibt. Also eine
Umschichtung von unten nach oben zu Gunsten der Hedge-Fonds, die diese Spekulation erst los getreten haben.
Zur Verschärfung der Situation trug dann die Irische Regierung bei, die eine 400 Mrd. € Bürgschaft für die Banken gab und damit
das Geldmonopol der Europäischen Zentralbank unterlaufen hat. dadurch wurde zuviel Geld in den Euro-währungsraum gepumpt, was
eine Inflation des Euro zur Folge hatte (ca. 4-5% Kaufkraftverlust) und anderen Staaten im Euro-Raum als Beispiel galt.
Damit wurde die EZB entmachtet und die Inflation wird sehr stark ansteigen, und damit wird dann auch der Euro genauso entwertet
wie der Dollar in den nächsten Monaten, wenn dem nicht entgegengehalten wird.
Das Problem der Deutschen ist nun, dass sie am Ende diese Systems stehen, da die deutschen Banken die Spareinlagen der Deutschen
gegen die Swaps, also die Sicherungen für die Derivate, vergeben haben. Das heisst, dass das gesamte system nun darauf aufbaut,
dass die Deutschen ihr Geld auf den Banken lassen, und nicht das Geld abheben, da ansonsten das ganze System in einer
Kettenreaktion zusammenbrechen würde, da die Swaps durch die negative Sparquote der Amerikaner nicht gesichert sind, und daher
mit den deutschen Spareinlagen durch die Swaps gesichert sind. Daher Merkels und Steinbrücks Äußerung "das geld ist sicher, wir
garantieren dies". Dies zielt nicht darauf ab die Spareinlagen der Deutschen wirklich zu sichern, sondern darauf, dass die
Deutschen das Geld bei den Banken belassen um den großen Crash zu verhindern. Dies ist allerdings nur ein vorübergehender
Schritt zur Sicherung des Finanzsystems, da Deutschland, wie Irland, die Maastricht-Konvergenz-Kriterien (max. 3%
Haushaltsdefizit zur Sicherung der Stabilität der Währung) umgeht und einfach einen 500 Mrd. € "Rettungsschirm" spannt, also
einfach gesagt "selbst Geld druckt", und damit die Entwertung des noch vorhandenen Geldes durch die steigende Inflation
vorantreiben wird. Um dem entgegezusteuern müssen dann die Leitzinsen heraufgesetzt werden, was wiederum zur Folge hat, dass die
DAX Unternehmen, die Kredite von den Banken genommen haben und immer noch halten, mehr Zinsen für die Kredite zahlen müssen sich
also die Dividende der Aktien nach unten bewegt, was wiederum zur Abwertung der Aktien führt. Damit wird dann auch die deutsche
Börse in die Knie gehen, was dann zur Folge hat, dass die Krise vollends auf die Realwirtschaft durchschlagen wird, mit den
allseits bekannten Folgen einer großen Rezession die sich verselbständigen wird, wie in Amerika. Amerika musste z.B. die
Bank-Runs abschwächen, wie auch Australien und Neuseeland, indem man die Höhe des abhebbaren Vermögens von den Banken
limitierte.
Durch diese Entwertung der Währungen weltweit wird es zudem zu Warenengpässen, möglicherweise auch zu Nahrungsmittelengpässen
zum Beispiel in Deutschland kommen, was daraus resultiert, dass Deutschland Nahrungsmittel aus China importiert, da im deutschen
Binnenraum nicht genügend Lebensmittel für die derzeitige Warenfülle hergstellt werden können. Die Engpässe resultieren im
Detail daraus, dass wenn z.B. Waren innerhalb einer Woche von China nach Deutschland befördert werden, die Währung durch die
Inflation in dieser Zeit so sehr entwertet werden kann, dass der Händler hier nur noch einen teil des vereinbarten Preises
erhält (Beispiel: 100 € pro Tonne Reis bei Bestellung in China vereinbart; 1 Woche unterwegs; Inflation innerhalb dieser woche
20%; Händler erhält 100 € bei Ankunft die aber 20% weniger Wert sind). Dadurch wird dann auch die ohnehin schon schlechte
Qualität der chin. Produkte weiter abnehmen, da die Händler schließlich auch kostendeckend verkaufen müssen (ergo 20% weniger
Geldwert führt zu vorheriger Preiskalkulation von 20% minderwertigerer Ware). Durch diese Logistikprobleme entstehen dann
kurzfristige Warenengpässe (bspw. kurz vor einer bekannten Inflation durch erneutes Pumpen von Geld in den Finanzmarkt).
Durch das Abziehen des Dollar vom weltmarkt, das wir gerade beobachten können, wird der Dollar eine massive Deflation erleben,
die dann wiederum in einer massiven Inflation (durch erneutes Ausgleichen einer geplatzten Derivate/Swap-Einforderung) enden
wird. Durch diese Deflation mit folgender Inflation werden wir in eine große Depression laufen, da wir das Geld zum "verbrennen"
in die Banke stecken anstatt es in die Wirtschaft zu stecken wo es wirklich gebraucht wird. Hier liegt auch der große Fehler der
Regierungen. Anstatt diese durch nichts gedeckten, spekulativen Derivate einfach gegen Null laufen zu lassen (einfach aus den
Bilanzen der Banken rausnehmen, und zwar aus allen, weltweit), kocht jetzt jede Regierung ihr eigenes Süppchen und erkennt diese
Derivate als reales Geldvermögen an, und "verbrennt!" damit immer mehr Geld, obwohl die gesamt Welt nicht genügend Geld zum
"verbrennen" hat, und stürzt sich damit in die (Hyper?)Inflation.
Zum Veranschaulichen:
The History of the finance-crisis 2008:
14-11-08 Freddie Mac Q3 Loss $25.3 bio. Need more money!
14-11-08 Icelands rescue loan from IMF is delayed through negotiation with British and Dutch lenders. Country in free fall
[Bloomberg]
14-11-08 EuroZone in recession. Germany taking lead in recessionary trend
14-11-08 Retail numbers are extremely bad. JCPenny profit drops52%
13-11-08 Dow Jones and S&P drop to new lows in 2008 but then recover with the highest gain of several hundred points (DJIA above
900 from low)
07-11-08 Talks about zero interest rates [Bloomberg]
07-11-08 GMAC bonds might face default, after having lost up to 80% of value [Bloomberg]
07-11-08 ECB reports that credit conditions to companies are worsening
07-11-08 Muenchner Rueck earnings decline 99%
06-11-08 LIBOR (which is used on $360 trillion money market) is down to 2.36% [bloomberg]
06-11-08 Stocks decline despite rate cuts and US elections clarity
06-11-08 BOE cuts interest by 1.5% to 3%, ECB cuts by 0.5%, Swiss central Bank cuts rates
03-11-08 Portugal plans nationalization of BPN (Banco Português de Negócios)BPN (Banco Português de Negócios)
03-11-08 French Societe General profit drops 84%, pure op. profit down 30%
03-11-08 Real Estate funds Degi and CS Euroreal close [FTD]
03-11-08 Austria nationalizes Kommunalkredit bank (8th largest)
03-11-08 German Commerzbank and HSH Nordbank access state rescue fund
01-11-08 China Purchasing Manager index down by 6.6% from September to October [Bloomberg]
30-10-08 Bank of Japan (BoJ) lowers interest rates to 0.3 percent
30-10-08 Libor and Euribor started this week to drop significantly due to lower spreads
30-10-08 More and more real estate funds freeze redemptions [FTD]
30-10-08 Erste Bank is first Austrian Bank which taps rescue funf package (€2.7 bio.)
29-10-08 Fed has increased Swap agreements with further countries
28-10-08 FED lowers key interest rate by 0.5 percent, ECB signals rate cut
22-10-08 Nestle leads inflation in Food sector [Bloomberg]
22-10-08 reports forclosure jump by 71% [Bloomberg]
22-10-08 Goldman Sachs and other companies lay off 10% of staff [FTD]
22-10-08 Lehmans lawyers fees top 1.4 billion [bloomberg]
21-10-08 Argentina nationalize private pension funds with value of $29 billion. [FTD, Bloomberg]
21-10-08 Kirk Kerkorian dumps Ford Shares at great loss [FTD]
21-10-08 Bayern LB needs €5.4 billion and taps Government bail out fund
19-10-08 Short Term LIBOR rates collapse. BOE plans to continue injecting capital [CNBC]
19-10-08 Opec plans to meet in emergency meeting to reduce output, after oil falls to $67 per barrel [N-TV]
19-10-08 Europes Sarkozy and Barroso plan to meet with US to discuss new trade World Order and System (Bretton Woods II) after
the potential elections in the US [Spiegel]
17-10-08 ING now in losses [finanztreff]
17-10-08 German IKB again in problems and needs 14-16 billion Euro financing [finanztreff]
17-10-08 Bankers still get over $70 billion in boni and could even buy their own banks with it [FTD] JPMorgan slashes boni
[CNBC] 33%
17-10-08 Germany agrees on rescue package, which includes to inject capital in banks against preferred stocks or to buy dodgy
assets [FTD]
16-10-08 emerging markets continue to sink. Economic outlook worsens [reuters, CNBC]
15-10-08 US Budget Deficit increases fom $162 (2006/2007) to $455 billion in 2007/2008 ! [n-TV]
15-10-08 German Chancellor Merkel speaks of "An end of an era"
15-10-08 French national convent agrees on €360 billion rescue package [n-TV]
15-10-08 Dubai constructions company seek money! With oil price below $80, problems for oil producers ahead
15-10-08 Bernanke and the rest of the world now speak of "longer term recession" US Retail sales down 1.2% in September,
European car sales -8.2 % in September [CNBC]
15-10-08 the crisis reaches out to cultural spendings. Art exhibitions to close [FAZ]
15-10-08 Libor comes down 20.25 basis point to 4.55
15-10-08 ECB, BOE, SCB inject $250 billion for 7 days at fixed interest to satisfy Dollar demand
15-10-08 The ECB changes its acceptence rules for colletaral. It now accepts any currency, and not only high rated securities,
but even B-. This comes after the ECB just toughend the rules a month ago! [FT]
14-10-08 US is forcing partly nationalizing of nine of the largest banks, without constitutional support [Washington Post]
14-10-08 Carrytrades in Yen take up again [Bloomberg], building up further risk to the economy
14-10-08 Germany expects unemployment to increase by 223.000 [FTD]
13-10-08 Stock markets started a sucker rally.
12-10-08 Europe injects 1.873 Trillion Euro in its bancrupt banking system. Germany intents a package above €500 billion; and to
reduce the salary of bank managers for those banks to "only" 500.000
10-10-08 Governments all over the world agree on bailing out banks.
09-10-08 Dow Jones below 9000. Dax close to 4000. Stock markets are down. Bank runs all over the world. Gold unavailable. Lehman
Auction fears.
08-10-08 UK nationalizes largest banks [bloomberg]
08-10-08 Complete Panic in the markets. Banks implode, Governments seek to support them. Iceland is bancrupt, after it attempt
to rescue its banks.
06-10-08 "Panic in the markets" Stock markets tumble. Dax loses more than 7%, Dow gets another hit, despite bail out package.
Gold Surges more than 30$ while oil tumbles with other comodities as well. Emerging markets drop most in 20 years.
06-10-08 The Euro loses against the Yen and Dollar. Yen gains as carrytrades are closed. Other European countries provide same
guarantees, but most likely they are not efficient.
05-10-08 German Chancellor Merkel says that she will provide a total guarantee to all private deposits at German banks.
Estimates of 598 billion are soon corrected to 1.2 trillion Euros
04-10-08 Hypo Real Estate rescue is sabotaged by private banks withdrawing their agreements. New rescue package gets agreed by
Sunday (last minute) before the €900 billion covered bond (Pfandbrief) market collapses.
04-10-08 US government agrees on bailout plan
30-09-08 Further Bail outs pending, Dexia (Belgium) and others
30-09-08 FED pumping $620 billion liquidity into markets
29-09-08 Four BANKS BAILED OUT SAME DAY in EUROPE: Belgium Fortis, German Hypo Real Estate, English Bradford & Bingley, and
icelands Glitnir
29-09-08 Bail out Plan not approved by republican senators, stock markets in the US start to sink. DJIA by 777 points
26-09-08 Wachovia failure, assets taken over and deposits sold to Citigroup.
24-09-08 Euribor reached highest level in History 5.44% and LIBOR shows further constrains in the credit markets Libor OIS
spread widens to 166 basis points LIBOR to 3.43%- Investors go cash [Bloomberg]
23-09-08 Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke to answer congress for a financial "Ermaechtigungsgesetz" in which the treasury receives
rights over an unlimited amount of money to be used at its discretion to support banks. People, and congress are heavily opposed
to the plan. [WSJ]
19-09-08 German Landesbanken hit by Lehman failure with billions [ft]
19-09-08 Stocks rally most in histrory. German Dax growth compares to 1962
19-09-08 Treasury secretary Paulson announces another plan to bail out mortgages with a volume of $700 billion
19-09-08 Moodys to cut rating on MBAC and MBIC [cnbc]
19-09-08 The first interference with peoples capital right: The SEC prohibits short trading on 799 stocks. Larry Kudlow
"Terrible idea"
18-09-08 Russian Stock Market closed in the afteroon of the 17th due to a more than 17% drop in the morning. It remains closed
to Friday. [FN]
18-09-08 3 months treasuries rates are close to zero !!
18-09-08 Central Banks are forced to inject large amounts of Liquidity $180 billion in concertated action, ECB $50 bilo. expects
to inject $110 bio, BOE, $40 bio [MarketWatch]
17-09-08 Gold price biggest jump in history
17-09-08 Deutsche Bank tries to reduce counterparty risk in CDS [bloomberg]
17-09-08 Dow Jones loss over 4% as investors start to distrust investment banks. Goldman Sachs stocksplunge over 26% and Morgan
Stanley over 44%
17-09-08 Money Market Funds falter: Reserve Primary Fund, the oldest US money market fund lost dramatically in value due to $785
mio write downs on Lehman engagement. Delays redemptions by at least 7 days. Investors just had been seeking security in money
markets ($3.5 trillion)[Bloomberg]
17-09-08 The FED bails out AIG with an emergency loan of $85 bio. and takes on 79.9% of AIG shares
16-09-08 LIBOR rates soar by 3.33 percentage points and will deepen credit crisis further after FED left rate at 2 percent
[Bloomberg]
16-09-08 Goldman Sachs came with disappointing profits in Q3 (where CDS markets still brought profits)
15-09-08 BLACK MONDAY On Wallstreet
Lehman Brothers files Chapter 11 Bancruptcy, Merrill Lynch agrees to be gought by Bank of America, AIG gets into series trouble,
because of further write downs. The effects cause turmoil on the markets. Stock markets are unable to capture the situation in
full. After dramatic losses most indices recover slightly.
15-09-08 AIG draws $20 bio. emergency loan
15-09-08 ECB injects €30 bio. one-day liquidity into the markets Bank of England injects 5 bio. BP [FT]
15-09-08 BAFIN issued a memorandum on Germany´s Lehman subsidary, causing effective stand-still of business after Japanse
regulators took same step.
12-09-08 German finance minister Steinbrueck says that he is sure that Lehman will not go bankrupt due to the impact on the
financial system
10-09-08 Warren Buffet expects more bank failures. His company stops to insure deposits [cnbc]
10-09-08 Because of bail-outs US now at higher risk to default! Risk premium for treasuries higher than Germany, Scandinavia,
Japan, France and the Netherlands [FT]
09-09-08 Rumors and now news from Lehman brothers cause stock to drop by 40% [CNBC]
08-09-08 Stock markets celebrate Freddie and Fannie bail-out, but their stocks fall to lowest levels ever.
07-09-08 At the Weekend Hank Paulson, treasury secretary, takes on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into "conservatorship". Equity
might get wiped out
03-09-08 Ospraie Hedge fund closes caused to massive losses in Comodities. [letter to shareholders]
03-09-08 What recession ? US GDP growth is unexpected higher [ft]
29-08-08 Tenth Bank failure in the US Integrity Bank of Alpharetta, Ga., fails. FDIC will assume $250-350 million of the $974
million deposits. [CNBC]
22-08-08 German ifo index on lowest level ever
22-08-08 FDIC will update its list of banks under observation to 151 from 90
22-08-08 Again US bank failue. The Columbian Bank and Trust.
21-08-08 Denmarks central bank saves Roskilde Bank with more than 603 mio. Euro [FTD]
20-08-08 Fannie and Freddie debt rollover is on stake. Asian debt buyers try to reduce exposure
20-08-08 Lehman brothers might be next to fail [cnbc]. Analysts expect two further bank bailures
20-08-08 Final sale of German IKB in bailout near. German Government to lose another billion Euros.[ARD][FTD]
15-08-08 Merrill Lynch does expect crisis to last beyond 2009
07-08-08 AMBAC posts profit after accounting changes
07-08-08 Freddie Mac posts loss of $ 821 million or $ 1.63 per share
06-08-08 Morgan Stanley freezes Home eqyuity loans (HELOC)
05-08-08 Soc Gen reports 63% less profit. Profit $1bio or ?644 m
[ft]
04-08-08 Fortis Bank earns 41% less [expansion]
04-08-08 Citigroup closes down Tribeca Global Fund. Initially $2 billion unit, focused on convertible arbitrage closes down
$400m fund.
04-08-08 HSBC profits fall 29% due to provisions for bad debt
04-08-08 Must see video Charlie Gasparino on Merrill's CFO playing golf while selling assets. In Memories of Bear Stearns (Who's
CEO played golf while the company was sinking)
25-07-08 FDIC takes on First heritage Bank NA of California (failed)
25-07-08 FDIC takes on First National Bank of Nevada (failed)
24-07-08 Washington Mutual reported loss of $3.33 bio. Lehman analysts stated that WAMUs loss could mount yp to $30bio. over
next years.
15-07-08 Bloomberg on size and exposure of off-balance sheet assets
15-07-08 Spains Martinsa Fadesa suspends debt repayment and considers fileing bancruptcy as it fails to raise $150 million loan
to support its $5.4 bio debt. [ftd]
12-07-08 FED and Treasury secretary Paulson jump in to bail out Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae with buying equity.
11-07-08 Second bank failure in the US. Mortgage lender, Indy Mac is been transferred to the FDIC, as regulator states that bank
is undervalued.
10-07-08 William Poole, former St. Louis FED president said that Freddie Mac would be insovolvent under fair value accounting
and that Fannie Mae would also become insolvent this quarter.
03-07-08 Marks and Spencer (retail) lost more than 25% of share value due to profit warning
03-07-08 US payrolls are down by over 60.000. Job losses over last 6 months
03-07-08 Oil reaches a new height at $147
03-07-08 ECB raises interest rates by to 4.25%
02-07-08 More write downs expected at banks such as UBS. Rumors about profit warning at Deutsche
02-07-08 Merrill analysts states that bancruptcy is an option for GM
01-07-08 DOw Jones index enters bear market with 20% loss since height.
26-06-08 Spanish consumer spending estimated to be down by 32%
26-06-08 Carrefour and Karstadt (Arcondor) shares down on worse than expected earnings
26-06-08 Fortis is seeking capital increase of ?8.3 bio and will cut dividend. Investors which were leveraged and refinanced
leverage with dividend sell of the share which drops by more than 20%
26-6-08 Stock markets send down by GS sayin Citi and Merrill will have more write downs and losses
25-06-08 Baklays raising $8.9 bio in share issue. An invesotor said "there had been a complete absence of control and
accountability? at Barclays, regarding a fraud in Spain [ft]
26-06-08 Gold futures skyrocket from 860 to above 900 due to weakening $
26-06-08 Oil reaches $139.5. Opec indicates 150 to 200 possible near term
25-06-08 FED leaves interest rates at 2% and sends $ down further
20-06-08 UBS had already reported loss of wealth-management client investments in Q1 2008. Now it seems holding its clients is
not easy [bloomberg]
20-06-8 Rumors that Merrill will have a loss due to ALT-A mortgage write downs
20-06-08 The non-ethics in investment banking [bloomberg]
17-06-08 FED Auctions $75 bio. to banks [cnn]
17-06-08 Goldman Sachs reports larger profit than expected and lower write
17-06-08 Zions Bancorporation tumbles after Goldman says its skeptical on regional banks
17-06-08 Lennar leads way (down) for homebuilders
12-06-08 Rumors about potential issues at banks drive stock markets down. Expected write downs for Citi, UBS, Merril on
downgrade of MBIA and AMBAC.
12-06-08 Citigroup closes old lane hedge fund which was co-founded by CEO Pandit
12-06-08 Rumors that Lehman Brothers will not be able to find refinancing. Analysts anticipate it gets bought
12-06-08 Lehman Brothers fires CFO Erin Callan. Stocks sink 8%
10-06-08 Fed Spokesman Ben Bernanke announces that he might hike rates
09-06-08 UBS might announce a loss for Q2 as well
09-06-08 Lehman Brothers announces a loss of $2.8 bio and seeks to raise $5 bio. Missing guidance and first loss since bank went
public
09-06-08 Oil prices had hiked to nearly $140 ed last week. Effects find percussions in Stock markets
06-06-08 Oil jumps to $134/barrel
06-06-08 US unemployment surges to fastest growth since 1986
05-06-08 ECB announces that inflation is in focus and rate hikes are likely next months,
giving decision makers time to adjust
05-06-08 Ben Bernanke announces that FED might not cut rates further
06-06-08 MBIA and AMBAC lose their ratings from S&P putting their business model at risk and about
$1 trillion of secured debt.
20-05-08 Soros sees acute phase over, but recession for US and UK
20-05-08 Marc Faber in CNBC "The economy stinks"
20-05-08 David Roche in CNBC "More Defaults to come"
19-05-08 Bloomberg on "Banks hiding write-downs"
19-05-08 CNBC story on "Trash for Treasuries"
18-05-08 $290 bio. - $379 bio in Write downs so far
- $165bio. ABS CDOs
- $52 bio. on SIVs
- $25 bio. direct RBMS
12-05-08 HSBC mkes provisions of $5.8 bio. Exact numbers on losses not available before August
09-05-08 Citigroup offers a fifth of its assets to sale.
05-08 MBIA reports Q1 loss of $2.41 bio.
08-05-08 AIG reports loss of $7.8 bio for Q1. Plans to raise $12 bio of fresh capital
02-05-08 Oil price now continous above $120 per barrel. GS analysts state it could reach $200
01-05-08 Bancruptcy rate in the US rises by 49%
29-04-08 Deutsche Bank reports Q1 loss after $4.3 bio in write downs
29-04-08 US Consumer Confidence at lowest level for five years
29-04-08 US Foreclosures risen 112% from last year and 23% from last quarter
29-04-08 Over $300 bio. of exlposive ARM still to reset in 2008
29-04-08 Countrtywide reports $893 m of loss for Q1
24-04-08 Inflation
High Rice prices and shortages in fast growin asian countries have cut worldwide rice supply. Rice is the food of the poor and
shortages combined with resulting price increases cause severe political issues. Riots have been reported in Haiti and other
countries. US Supermarkets limit the amount of Rice to be sold. This could be interpreted as the first step in a
hyperinflationary spiral.
24-04-08 Credit Swiss reports SFR 2.15 bio. Loss after 5.3 bio in write downs
23-04-08 The effect of low $ and high oil prices take a first wave of tolls
Delta airlines reports loss of $6.4 bio or $16.15 per share
Northwest reported loss of $4.1 bio or $15.78 per share
23-04-08 Ambac is seeking more money. With a Market Cap of below $1 bio. (down 96% from last year)and a loss of $1.6 bio in Q1,
Ambac seeks to raise more money. More than $600 bio. of loans are insured by Default insurer and the risk of failure is
increasing quarter by quarter.
22-04-08 Duesseldorfer Hyp. bailed out by private banks
22-04-08 Bank of America reports profit of $ 1.12 bio of Q1 - 77% less than last year
22-04-08 Citigroup seeks to raise $ 6 bio through share sell
22-04.08 RBS seeks capital increase of ?15 bio.
21-04-08 RBS writes down ?7.1 bio
17-04-08 Citigroup reports Q1 loss of $5 bio. - Share price rises by 6%
16-04-08 Merrill Lynch reports Q1 loss of $2 bio.-08 GE Profit take a hit send shares down
10-04-08 Investor Sorros says worst is still to come
10-04-08 Citibank sells $12bio of leveraged loans *we just do not know at what discount
10-04-08 CEOs of Retailers like Ikea, JCPenny recognize the fact that its going to be more difficult (WorldRetail
Congress200
.
09-04-08 Lehman Brothers to liqduidate several funds including money market funds. Taking several hundred of millions of $ into
their own balance sheet.
08-04-08 First German bank to fail and not bailed out. Weserbank driven into insolvency with wing clients over ?25 million.
Clients found themselves without able to withdraw cash one morning. When they will receive cash to compensate part of their
money from insurance is pretty unclear at this time.
07-04-08 The $330 bio. Auction Market is not recovering. Auctions fail and do not provide existing buyers of auction papers to
sell off this short term investments. This trend is inforced by the fact that the papers are linked to currently very low LIBOR
rate in case auction fails. - By lowering interst rates, the FED has caused this market to suffer even further.04-04-08
Foreclosure levels so high that lenders are unable to perform asset seizure and sale process.
04-04-08 US Joibless claims higher than expected. 80.000 new claims show that economy is getting deeper into trouble. Shows that
FED rate cuts inefficient to fuel companies.
01-04-08 Fools Day brings fools rally. Shares and indices jump by several points due to end of crisis in sight. However Crisis
has expanded to real economy already.
01-04-08 UBS reports $19 bio in Write downs. Stock jumps by 11%. Bank expects first quarter loss of of 12 bio. Swiss Francs.
01-04-08 Deutsche Bank reports more write downs. Now ?2.5 bio. more write downs after they said "no further losses from
sub-prime engagement expected", last year.
26-03-08 Analyst Meredith Whitney reduces outlook for Citigroup. Expects loss in 2008
26-03-08 US real estate financing company Thornburg seeks to launch a rescue increase of share capital of $1.35 bio.
Initial interest rate set to 18%.
26-03-08 mortgage Insurance company MGIC seeks to raise fresh capital of $420mio. by increase of share capital
25-03-08 Case Shiller house price index shows strongest decline since decades (-11.8%)
25-03-08 Gold Price at $925
35.000 jobs at Wallstreet lost. Crisis has reached real economy and consumer spending.
25-03-08 After the extended vacation. Gold and comodities are down significant. Stocks up.
24-03-08 JP Morgan comes up with a better offer for bear stearns.
21-03-08 Government decides to inject large amounts of liquidity in the real estate markets by injecting it via Freddy Mac and
Fanny Mae.
20-03-08 Commentators state that the FED balance sheet now is exposed to over 50% of doubtfull assets
19-03-08 FED decides to cut interest rates by 0.75%.
18-03-08 Gold significant over $1000
17-03-08 The Crisis reaches a new level
17-03-08 Financial Markets are in disarray. Speculations about more bank problems surface. UBS, Lehman and Merrill Lynch are on
the "Whish list". Rumors for bancruptcy of Iceland and problems at HBOS sent markets down.
17-03-08 Bear stearns collapsed. The FED and JP Morgan have worked on a deal to offer 2$ per share for existing Bear Stearns
shares, which is raoughly above $200 million, while the FED is securing $30 bio. of liabilities. Billionair investors are
unhappy with having lost more than a billion dollars in Bear Stearns. Despite the 2$ offer shares trade at 5$. On Friday before
the stock was traded above $40.
16-03-08 Weekend discount rate cut of the FED. THe FED seeks to insure that also investment bankers (prime brokers) can access
the discount window directly. Exchange of Treasuries against doubtfull securities.
12-03-08 China and Jordan in talks to plan departing from US-Dollar. Rumors that Saudi Arabia bought massively US-Dollar on the
World Markets.
12-03-08 Citigroup needs to support 6 funds
12-03-08 Carlyle Capital Group (CCC) still facing difficulties. Lendors seem to have already sold 25% of $21 bio. of the fund
assets after margin calls. Analysts state CCC could even face risk of incolvency.
12-03-08 Dresdner Bank K3 investment vehicle with $18.8 bio under scrutiny by Moody.
12-03-08 Drake Management in talks about plans to close 3 hedge funds
11-03-08 FED and other Central banks start massive injection of liquidity. ($200 bio by tendering collatoral against mortgage
debt)
10-03-08 DJIA ends up below 12.000 points Dax below 6500
10-03-08 Rumors about Bear Stearns issues with Liquidity
10-03-08 A group of Carlyle Capital faces margin calls and continues having trouble in refinancing mortgage debt.
10-03-08 Blackstone makes loss, shares dive
06-03-08 French Credit Agricole posts first quarterly loss (?857 m). CA's investment banking unit took write down of ?1.9 bio
07-03-08 Unemployment in the US 63.000 higher than expected.
06-03-08 Thornburg and Carlyle Capital Group face multi billioin dollar margin calls.
02-03-08 German regulators state that insurer will be able to cope with bank failures in Germany.
01-03-08 Bernanke states that 200 banks could fail during crisis. FDIC hires people to prepare for bank failures.
29-02-08 Dow Jones Index takes significant drop
29-02-08 AIG drops after announcing $11 bio. in Deivative losses. AIG posts $5.29 bio. Loss
29-02-08 Chicago consumer index down
29-02-08 Expectations are a $400 - $600 bio. in subprime write downs to come, causing banks to pull back over $900 bio in
lendings.
28-02-08 FED Chairman Bernanke expects bank failures
28-02-08 FDIC has hired back more than 25 people who were already retired in order to prepare for bank insolvencies
26-02-08 Liquidity freeze reaches off-balance sheet activities of corporations. $784 bio, of these short term debt (VIE) is
currently outstanding in the CP market.
26-02-08 Home Depot reports lower earnings
26-02-08 Rate of Home foreclosures up to 100% compared to last year.
26-02-08 Inflation hikes due to higher import prices and worldwide increase in agricultural products consumption
20-02-08 Interest rates for municipal debt jumps from 4% to 20%. Expected shortfalls on spending due to extreme cost of debt.
20-02-08 Debt Auction markets liqudity evaporated. Investment banks do not jump in to aid immediate liquidity needs of their
wealthy investors.
20-02-08 A division of KKR has delayed its debt repayment.
19-02-08 Bayern LB loses ?1.9 bio
15-02-08 German IKB needs more money than expected
15-02-08 RBS is expected to eventually publish higher write-offs as declared in December
15-02-08 Citi has stopped investors to withdraw their money from a corporate bond hedge fund. Citigroup injected a $100 mio to
stabilize the fund.
15-02-08 Lampert, one of Citi's largest investors cuts his losses and reduces his stake
13-02-08 Citigroup sits on $43 bio CLOs. Write down already $2.2 bio
13-02-08 UBS and Wachovia placed emergency sale of CLOs
13-02-08 Market for CLOs has been breaking down. Banks sit on billions of recently financed LBOs and investors to purchase those
risky papers are absent which sends prices down to 86%
13-02-08 Fitch downgraded 24 CLO papers
13-02-08 S&P expects higher rate of insolvencies for PE financed companies
13-02-08 GSCI Agricultural Commodities Subindex prices increase by 67%
13-02-08 Mervin King British Central Bank warns that monetary policy cannot prevent growth slow-down. Inflation risk higher
13-02-08 Swedish Central bank 25 points interest rate raise
13-02-08 German government in discussion about IKB bancrupcy government to support failed bank.
12-02-08 Job cuts at Wallstreet and City of London in investment banking hit the street. Approx. 8000 jobs in investment banking
lost. [1]
12-02-08 Spanish banks increased borrowing from ECB to ?44bio. up from ?24bio. in earlier quarters.
11-02-08 AIG reports a write down in CDS papers over $5bio.
09-02-08 German banks such as IKB, WestLB have problems to find financers. IKB has yet another 500 mio financing need. This
seems to become a "neverending story"
08-02-08 Moody's expects junk bond defaults to increase to 10%
08-02-08 ECB announces course change to inflation politics and indicates possibility of rate cuts.
07-02-08 Deutsche Bank Josef Ackermann reports excellent results of his bank. However the bank might be hit by effects of the
monoline insurers.
05-02-08 Australia's central bank increases interest rates, despite credit market troubles
04-02-08 Rumors about Merger Mania in Spain (energy sector) drive the IBEX to nearly 14.000
04-02-08 Markets have not reacted or highlighted the next write downs caused by the massive downgrading by S&P.
04-02-08 An affiliate of Citigroup in the UK withdraws 160.000 credit cards from clients.
02-02-08 Microsoft announces bid for Yahoo, which drives stock markets up. Nobody asking questions about over-valuation and the
merger-mania. People seek to believe the optimist stories.
31-01-08 Meredith Whitney says that the crisis at the bond insurer will most likely hit primarily Citigroup, UBS and Merril
Lynch [FTD] as their exposure is 45%. She estimates $40 to $70 bio write downs if insurer lose rating.
31-01-08 Due to downgrade crisis expands to smaller banking institutions in the US which now will be caught up by the crisis!
[FAZ]
31-01-08 S&P announces downgrading of a large variety of debt papers. Expected losses of $265 bio. due to downgrade of 8000
papers with volume of $536 bio.
31-01-08 Bond insurer MBIA reported loss in Q4 2007 of $2.3 bio.
31-01-08 Luxury coffe shop chain Starbuck reduces profit forcast due to economic downturn in the US. Plan to open less new
locations than planned. Starbucks has increased profit but prepares now for the coming recession.
31-01-08 Spanish inflation up to now 4.4% ! [El Pais]
31-01-08 Deutsche Bank analyst says that FED move is very risky [Handelsblatt]
31-01-08 German stock market DAX drops significant despite FED decision. Market participants cash in on their speculative
investments over the last days.
30-01-08 Stock markets jump by 200 points after Fed rate cut and then drop below the early morning opening.
30-01-08 The FED lowers interest rates as expected to 3% by 0.5 percentage points. Also lowered discount rate.
30-01-08 UBS and BNP report further losses. UBS hit hard
30-01-08 Alan Greenspan sees chance for US recession at 50%. Does not believe that FED can save the day. [handelslatt]
30-01-08 A TV report said that losses from German Sparkassen, Landesbanken and IKB banks could amiunt to ?180 bio..
29-01-08 US long lasting durable good sales is up by 5.2 % this months
29-01-08 US foreclosure rates jumped 79% in 2007 and left about 405.000 people without homes.
29-01-08 Stock markets rise slightly with growing expectations on a further rate cut by the FED.
27-01-08 It seems the US government seeks to announce further economic aid programs.
27-01-08 "Handelsblatt" says there are more frauds and scandals to come. This is what experience tells us. According to another
German magazine, Deustche Bank Chief Ackermann has asked his staff to clarify "if this could happen here". Let's see. Does he
know more ?
26-01-08 The Scandal at Societe General shocks the world. Trader Jerome Kerviel has lost $5 bio is speculative trading. The bank
lost now over $7 bio. this quarter and needs to seek $5 bio fresh capital.
26-01-08 German IKB seems to continue searching for investor. Postbank says they are not interested.
26-01-08 Ambac has $69 bio outstanding of which $29 are in doubtfull CDO papers. US officials seek to save the company.
26-01-08 Nothern Rock now supported with $49 bio. by the British Government
25-01-08 Stock markets are up in the morning, but then losing steam in late afternoon. Put Option contracts are still sold at
higher prices, indicating that investors expect downturn.
25-01-08 Rumors about citibank bancruptcy have gone out. According to Citigroups website the fund raising activities should have
been closed at the end of the day. Now news, yet if wether they succeeded or not.
22-01-08 Stock markets all over the world suffer in the early hours. India stock market stops trading after too significant
drops of 11%. Dax Starts with 5% losses.
21-01-08 Bank of China and other chinese banks are reported to expect losses from the subprime engagement. BOC also fires
several thousand employees as they violated rules causing write downs of above 100 bio.
21-01-08 Economists start to warn that this crisis could be like 29. The word "Depression" starts to be used by analysts.
21-01-08 Worldwide Stock market crashes. "Black Monday" while wallstreet is closed for Martin Luther kings day.
18-01-01 Merryl Lynch reported significant write downs and losses. Stock markets drop after this "Surprising" news
15-01-08 Citigroup reported loss $9.8 bio in quarter. Write downs from mortgage engagement $18.1 bio. Foreign investors inject
$12.5 bio. fresh capital.
15-01-08 Outlook for Spain darkens. Comments in several Newspapers paint a picture in which collapse of Spanish economy
(Recession) before elections in March.
15-01-08 German Dax drops over 100 points
15-01-08 German Hypo Real Estate is shocking the stock market. With a loss of 400 mio. in the subprime segment engagement. HVRE
lost 30% of market value in minutes.
10-01-08 Spanish real estate market about to collapse. Several real estate companies now bancrupt, others like RENTA lost
significant portion of their value
10-01-08 Goldman Sachs and Uno see worldwide rezession with a chance of 50%, starting in US and Japan. (Spiegel)
06-01-08 ECB bank president Trichet is concerned about dramatic inflation in the Eurozone and demans low wage increses from
German unions
04-01-08 Spanish inflation hikes above 4 %
03-01-08 Oil price reaches the psychological barrier of 100$ per barrel
02-01-08 Stock markets start to drop significantly
Quelle der Timeline:
http://www.berninger.de/crisis-track...isis-2008.html